For over fifteen years, India has closely supported Sheikh Hasina’s regime in Bangladesh, despite numerous allegations of human rights abuses and corruption. The violent uprising that led to Hasina’s flight to India in a military cargo plane saw the death of 542 people within 20 days. This support has extended to ignoring the siphoning of an estimated $150 billion—double Bangladesh’s national budget—by Hasina’s cronies.
India’s stance on Bangladesh has been notably firm in favor of Hasina, even when this has meant disregarding the broader implications. During her rule, the Modi administration prioritized its relationship with Hasina and the Awami League over cultivating goodwill with the Bangladeshi populace. Despite calls from the U.S. to hold Hasina accountable for human rights violations, India lobbied Washington to maintain a favorable stance towards her, emphasizing the strategic necessity of a consensus between India and the U.S.
On July 19, amidst escalating violence and police shootings, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar dismissed the situation as a “Bangladesh’s internal matter.” When Hasina’s regime fell in what Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus called Bangladesh’s “Second Independence,” Jaishankar’s response did not acknowledge the reasons behind the uprising against India’s ally.
Indian media and some political analysts have shifted blame for Hasina’s downfall onto external actors like Pakistan, China, and the U.S., overlooking the internal dynamics driving the unrest. Such narratives diminish the true nature of the issues at hand, including the mistreatment of minorities and the discontent among Bangladesh’s younger generation who are disconnected from past conflicts with India.
The Indian government’s support for Hasina has complicated its relations with Bangladesh. Ordinary Bangladeshis now struggle to dissociate India from the actions of the Awami League. This tension was evident when the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka was attacked shortly after Hasina’s departure.
As Hasina faces numerous charges, including those for murder, and with her passport revoked by the new Bangladeshi government, India’s continued harboring of her poses diplomatic risks. Bangladesh might seek her extradition under the existing treaty between the two nations. Additionally, the presence of Hasina in India could alienate the Bangladeshi youth, pushing them towards rival powers like China.
To resolve these issues, India must recognize that its longstanding support for Hasina has become a liability. Engaging directly with the Bangladeshi people, rather than relying on old alliances, is crucial. India’s foreign policy must evolve to address contemporary realities and foster genuine relationships based on mutual respect and current regional dynamics.
India’s future regional influence depends on its ability to adapt and rethink its approach towards Bangladesh, acknowledging past mistakes while working to build new, meaningful partnerships.